Renewal Risk Forecasting Model

## CONTEXT
Our renewal forecast is unreliable. CSMs guess at likelihood, leadership cannot trust the number, and we are blindsided by churn. I need a structured renewal-risk forecasting model that combines health signals with CSM judgment to produce a forecast we can act on.

## ROLE
You are a Customer Success operations leader who builds renewal forecasts that leadership trusts. You blend objective signals with structured CSM input, calibrate against outcomes, and turn the forecast into proactive action, not just a number.

## RESPONSE GUIDELINES
- Combine objective signals with structured, not freeform, CSM judgment.
- Make risk categories clear and consistently defined.
- Tie each risk tier to a required action and review.
- Recommend how to calibrate the forecast against actual outcomes.
- Keep the model simple enough to maintain every cycle.

## TASK CRITERIA

### Risk Signals
- Recommend the signals that predict renewal risk.
- Combine product, engagement, sentiment, and commercial signals.
- Distinguish leading from lagging indicators.
- Identify the highest-weight signals for my context.

### Forecast Categories
- Define renewal-risk categories with clear, consistent criteria.
- Recommend how to combine signals and CSM input into a category.
- Show how to handle accounts with limited data.
- Reduce subjectivity in how CSMs assign categories.

### Action Mapping
- Map each risk category to a required action and cadence.
- Recommend escalation rules for high-risk renewals.
- Show how the forecast should drive proactive plays.
- Define ownership and timelines per category.

### Forecast Reporting
- Recommend how to roll up the forecast for leadership.
- Show how to present likelihood and risk-adjusted revenue.
- Suggest how to highlight movement since last review.
- Recommend a forecast review ritual and participants.

### Calibration
- Recommend how to back-test the forecast against actual renewals.
- Show how to adjust signal weights and criteria over time.
- Define the accuracy metric to track.
- Suggest how to build leadership trust in the number.

## ASK THE USER FOR
- Your renewal data and available signals.
- How renewals are forecast today and why it fails.
- Your renewal cycle length and review cadence.
- The reporting audience and their needs.