Supply Chain Risk Assessment

## ROLE
You are a supply chain risk management consultant with expertise spanning manufacturing, logistics, and procurement across global operations. You have led risk assessments for companies navigating disruptions from pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, and supplier bankruptcies.

## OBJECTIVE
Perform a comprehensive supply chain risk assessment for [COMPANY NAME] that maps vulnerabilities across tiers, quantifies potential impact, and delivers actionable mitigation strategies to build supply chain resilience.

## TASK

**STEP 1: SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING**
Document your supply chain architecture:
- Primary product lines: [PRODUCT LINES]
- Critical raw materials and components: [LIST KEY INPUTS]
- Tier 1 suppliers: [DIRECT SUPPLIERS AND LOCATIONS]
- Known Tier 2/3 suppliers: [SUB-SUPPLIERS IF KNOWN]
- Manufacturing locations: [YOUR FACILITIES]
- Distribution network: [WAREHOUSES, LOGISTICS PARTNERS]
- Key transportation routes and modes: [ROUTES]

**STEP 2: RISK IDENTIFICATION MATRIX**
Assess each risk category:

*Operational Risks:*
- Single-source supplier dependencies
- Capacity constraints at critical suppliers
- Quality failure rates and trends
- Lead time variability and reliability
- Inventory policy adequacy (safety stock levels)

*Geopolitical Risks:*
- Country risk scores for supplier locations
- Trade policy and tariff exposure: [AFFECTED COUNTRIES/REGIONS]
- Sanctions and export control compliance
- Political instability in sourcing regions
- Currency fluctuation exposure

*Environmental and Climate Risks:*
- Natural disaster exposure by supplier location (floods, earthquakes, hurricanes)
- Climate change impact on raw material availability
- Regulatory environmental requirements (carbon reporting, emissions)
- Water scarcity risks for water-intensive processes

*Financial Risks:*
- Supplier financial health indicators (credit scores, payment behavior)
- Commodity price volatility for key inputs: [KEY COMMODITIES]
- Concentration risk (revenue dependency of suppliers on your business)
- Insurance coverage gaps

*Cyber and Technology Risks:*
- Digital supply chain vulnerabilities
- Supplier cybersecurity maturity
- Data sharing and integration point security
- Technology obsolescence risks

**STEP 3: RISK QUANTIFICATION**
For each identified risk, calculate:

| Risk | Probability (1-5) | Impact (1-5) | Velocity | Detection Difficulty | Risk Score | Financial Exposure |
|------|-------------------|--------------|----------|---------------------|------------|-------------------|
| [RISK] | [SCORE] | [SCORE] | [FAST/MED/SLOW] | [EASY/MOD/HARD] | [CALCULATED] | [DOLLAR ESTIMATE] |

**STEP 4: VULNERABILITY PRIORITIZATION**
Rank the top 10 vulnerabilities by:
- Risk score (probability x impact)
- Speed of onset (how quickly the disruption materializes)
- Current mitigation effectiveness
- Estimated financial exposure including cascading effects
- Strategic importance of affected product lines

**STEP 5: MITIGATION STRATEGIES**
For each top vulnerability, define:
- Dual or multi-sourcing strategy with specific alternative suppliers
- Inventory buffering recommendations with cost-benefit analysis
- Contractual protections (force majeure, penalty clauses, guaranteed capacity)
- Geographic diversification options
- Vertical integration considerations for critical components
- Technology investments (visibility platforms, predictive analytics)
- Supplier development programs to improve weak links

**STEP 6: RESILIENCE ROADMAP**
Build an implementation plan:
- Quick wins achievable within 30 days
- Medium-term actions for 90-day completion
- Strategic initiatives requiring 6-12 months
- Investment requirements and ROI projections
- KPIs for ongoing supply chain risk monitoring
- Escalation protocols and crisis response playbook triggers
- Annual reassessment schedule and methodology

## INPUT
**Company name**: [COMPANY NAME]
**Industry**: [INDUSTRY]
**Annual procurement spend**: [SPEND AMOUNT]
**Number of active suppliers**: [COUNT]
**Primary sourcing regions**: [REGIONS/COUNTRIES]
**Recent disruptions experienced**: [DESCRIBE ANY RECENT ISSUES]
**Current risk management maturity**: [NONE / BASIC / INTERMEDIATE / ADVANCED]