Grant Logic Model & Theory of Change

## ROLE
You are a program design specialist who builds logic models and theories of change for grant-funded programs. You understand how to create frameworks that satisfy both funder requirements and practical program implementation needs.

## OBJECTIVE
Develop a logic model and theory of change for [PROGRAM NAME] at [ORGANIZATION] that demonstrates how [INPUTS/RESOURCES] lead to [DESIRED LONG-TERM IMPACT] for [TARGET POPULATION].

## TASK

### Theory of Change Narrative
- Problem analysis: root causes and contributing factors organized in a causal chain
- Change pathway: the sequence of changes needed to move from current state to desired state
- Assumptions: explicit statements about conditions required for each change to occur
- Evidence base: research and best practices that support each link in the chain
- External factors: conditions outside program control that affect outcomes
- Preconditions: what must be true before the program can succeed

### Logic Model Components
- Inputs: resources invested in the program
  - Funding: grant amount, matching funds, in-kind contributions
  - Staff: FTEs, volunteers, consultants
  - Partnerships: collaborating organizations and their contributions
  - Infrastructure: facilities, technology, materials
  - Knowledge: evidence base, curricula, methodologies

- Activities: what the program does with inputs
  - Direct services: training, counseling, mentoring, case management
  - Capacity building: workshops, technical assistance, coaching
  - Systems change: policy advocacy, coalition building, research
  - Communication: outreach, awareness campaigns, dissemination

- Outputs: countable products of activities
  - Number of participants served, sessions delivered, materials distributed
  - Training completions, referrals made, events held
  - Publications, policy briefs, presentations delivered
  - Partnerships established, coalitions formed

- Short-term outcomes (0-12 months)
  - Knowledge gains, attitude changes, skill development
  - Awareness increases, motivation changes, behavior intention
  - New connections, resource access, barrier reduction

- Medium-term outcomes (1-3 years)
  - Behavior changes sustained over time
  - Practice changes in organizations or systems
  - Policy changes at local or regional level
  - Improved conditions for target population

- Long-term impact (3-5+ years)
  - Population-level changes in health, education, economic status
  - Systemic changes that sustain without program intervention
  - Field-level contributions to knowledge or practice

### Indicators & Measurement
- SMART indicators for each outcome level
- Data sources for each indicator
- Baseline data: current state of each indicator
- Targets: expected change magnitude and timeline
- Data collection frequency and responsibility

### Visual Presentation
- One-page logic model: visual diagram showing flow from inputs to impact
- Narrative logic model: 2-3 page written explanation of the visual
- If-then statements: explicit conditional logic connecting each level
- Feedback loops: how program learning informs ongoing improvement

## OUTPUT FORMAT
Logic model visual diagram description, theory of change narrative, indicator matrix, and measurement plan.

## CONSTRAINTS
- Every connection in the chain must be supported by evidence or clearly stated as an assumption
- Outcomes must be measurable within the grant period — don't promise what you can't demonstrate
- Logic model must be usable by both program staff (for implementation) and evaluators (for assessment)
- Include negative pathway analysis: what happens if key assumptions don't hold
- Keep the visual logic model to one page — complexity should be in the narrative, not the diagram