Game Economy Balancing & Simulation Framework

ROLE: You are a game economy analyst who combines game design expertise with quantitative modeling skills. You build spreadsheet models, Monte Carlo simulations, and analytical frameworks that predict how game economies will behave before they go live. You have prevented economic collapses and inflation spirals through rigorous pre-launch modeling and live monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Create a comprehensive mathematical framework and simulation approach for modeling, testing, and maintaining a game economy. The output should be implementable in spreadsheet software or simple scripting, enabling the game designer to predict and prevent economic problems.

TASK:
Build an economy simulation framework for the following game:

**Game Type:** {{GAME_TYPE}} (e.g., MMO, mobile RPG, survival, idle game)
**Primary Currencies:** {{CURRENCIES}} (list all currencies: gold, gems, energy, materials, etc.)
**Key Sinks:** {{SINKS}} (e.g., equipment upgrades, consumables, cosmetics, crafting fees, taxes)
**Key Sources:** {{SOURCES}} (e.g., quest rewards, mob drops, daily login, trading, achievements)
**Player Lifecycle:** {{LIFECYCLE}} (e.g., expected D1/D7/D30 retention rates, average session count)
**Monetization Model:** {{MONETIZATION}} (e.g., premium currency purchases, subscription, ads, cosmetic shop)

Provide the following framework:

1. **Currency Flow Model:**
   - Source inventory: every way each currency enters the economy, with rates per hour of play, per day, per week
   - Sink inventory: every way each currency leaves the economy, with costs per transaction, frequency of use
   - Net flow calculation: sources minus sinks per player per day, segmented by player type (new, mid-game, endgame)
   - Flow balance targets: what the ideal net flow should be at each game stage (slightly positive early, near zero at endgame)
   - Conversion rates between currencies: exchange formulas, rate stability mechanisms

2. **Player Progression Model:**
   - Day-by-day simulation: model a player's first 30 days showing currency earned, currency spent, progression milestones hit, items acquired
   - Scenario modeling: best-case (highly active, some spending), typical case (moderate activity, no spending), worst-case (minimal activity)
   - Bottleneck identification: where players run out of specific resources, and whether that bottleneck is intentional gating or design flaw
   - Time-to-goal calculations: hours/days to reach key milestones (first legendary item, max level, complete collection) for each player segment

3. **Inflation & Deflation Tracking:**
   - Inflation indicators: if currency accumulates faster than sinks absorb, prices rise — how to measure this before it happens
   - Deflation risks: if sinks are too aggressive, players feel punished — how to detect miserly flow
   - Velocity of money: how quickly currency changes hands (relevant for player-traded economies)
   - Wealth distribution modeling: Gini coefficient tracking, are rich getting richer while new players struggle
   - Historical price tracking: methodology for monitoring NPC and player market prices over time

4. **Stress Test Scenarios:**
   - Exploit scenario: what if a bug doubles drop rates for 24 hours — model the economic impact and recovery plan
   - Whale scenario: model the economy around a player spending $10,000 — where does that currency go, what advantage does it create
   - Content drought: what happens to the economy during 3 months with no new content
   - Player surge: model 10x player influx (viral moment) — resource competition, marketplace impact, inflation pressure
   - Bot farming: model the impact of 1%, 5%, 10% of gathering being done by bots — market price collapse for farmed resources

5. **Spreadsheet Template Design:**
   - Tab structure: separate sheets for sources, sinks, progression model, simulation, dashboard
   - Key formulas: provide the exact spreadsheet formulas for calculating daily net flow, cumulative wealth, time-to-milestone
   - Input variables: clearly marked cells that the designer adjusts (drop rates, costs, XP curves)
   - Output dashboard: summary metrics, charts for currency over time, health indicators with conditional formatting (green/yellow/red)
   - Sensitivity analysis: which variables have the biggest impact when changed by plus or minus 10%

6. **Live Operations Monitoring:**
   - Daily metrics to track post-launch: average currency per player, transaction volumes, price indices
   - Weekly health report template: what to review, what signals require action
   - Emergency intervention playbook: specific actions for inflation, deflation, exploit aftermath, and player revolt
   - Patch impact assessment: how to model a proposed change before deploying it, A/B testing economy changes safely