Subscription Box Inventory Forecasting

Help me develop an inventory forecasting system for my subscription box. Current subscriber base is [NUMBER] with [X]% monthly growth. We ship [FREQUENCY] and carry [NUMBER] SKUs.

Develop:

1. Demand Forecasting Model
- Subscriber projection methodology
- New subscriber estimates
- Churn adjustment factors
- Seasonal variation analysis
- Gift subscription spikes

2. Safety Stock Calculations
- Buffer percentage by product type
- Lead time considerations
- Supplier reliability factors
- Quality rejection allowance

3. Order Quantity Optimization
- Economic order quantity factors
- MOQ negotiation strategies
- Storage cost considerations
- Cash flow balancing

4. Product-Specific Planning
- Hero item forecasting
- Discovery item quantities
- Personalization variant planning
- Add-on shop inventory
- Replacement stock levels

5. Seasonal Adjustments
- Holiday volume planning
- Gift subscription forecasting
- Summer slowdown factors
- New year spike preparation

6. Inventory Tracking System
- Real-time inventory monitoring
- Reorder point alerts
- Overstock identification
- Dead stock management

7. Reporting Framework
- Weekly inventory review
- Monthly forecasting accuracy
- Waste and shortage tracking
- Vendor performance analysis